Critical Minerals Supply Chain: How Can Investors Find Information

In May 2025, a plant in Chicago responsible for assembling Ford Explorer vehicles was forced to stop its operations. This was the result of China’s export restrictions on rare earth magnets to other nations, according to the Ford Authority.

The thing is, China controls around 99% of rare earth magnets, which are necessary not just for EVs, but also for components within other types of cars, where they are used in headlights, steering systems, power seats, braking systems, and other systems. Later, the factory reopened, but the story shows just how crucial the supply chain for critical minerals is.

Critical Minerals explained: What they are and why they matter

Critical minerals are a subset of minerals believed to be essential for the manufacturing and technology needs of businesses, industries, and countries, according to the United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT).

For instance, rare earth elements are needed to create permanent magnets that are important for wind turbines.

• To build a wind farm, one needs nine times more minerals than for a natural gas power plant.
• Making an EV requires six times more minerals compared to a gasoline-powered car, according to the International Energy Agency.

Critical minerals are designated by governments as important to national security and advanced manufacturing, where there’s a high risk of supply disruption because of the geographic concentration of production or processing.

At the same time, the concept of critical minerals is rather flexible. This is because the classification can change over time based on the stakeholders' point of view and because the situation in the technological, social, and economic sectors can change.

For instance, today the U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Critical Minerals List features 60 minerals, including 15 rare earth elements (*), while four years ago, in 2022, it featured 50 minerals.

Other economies have their own overlapping lists. The EU, Australia, and Japan share several minerals from the U.S. list.

Important notice: A mineral doesn't have to be rare to be considered critical. Take, for example, common metals like nickel and copper - they are abundant and yet considered critical because they are hard to replace and have a crucial role in the economy and national security of a nation.

Moreover, it may require an average of 15.5 years to establish new mining operations from exploration to first production (depending on the minerals, location, and nature of the mine), according to the World Resources Institute.

It’s worth noting that demand for critical minerals continues to increase at a pace that’s faster than supply, leading to shortages and uncertainty, according to the report from the Boston Consulting Group.

Complex regulations worsen the issue. Companies and governments are trying to secure their own supply chains, but this may not be enough. Experts consider that there’s a need for a coordinated ecosystem in which miners, processors, buyers, investors, and governments cooperate to create a stronger and more reliable critical mineral supply chain.

The 2025 critical minerals list: Why it matters for capital allocation

The table below includes some of the most critical minerals where China controls the majority of global refining capacity.

Key critical minerals

Minerals for which China accounts for over 60% of global refining capacity are often viewed as strategically important due to their concentrated supply chains and potential exposure to changes in trade and export policies.

Why does China control the supply chain and how does it benefit from it?

Note: Even though China does mine a lot of critical minerals, it stands out as the leading player in refining those minerals.

• Cobalt, for example, is mostly mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and China refines up to 70% of global output.
• Lithium is mined in Australia and Chile (in 2025, China mined around 18% of the metal), but the processing mostly takes place in China.
• Gallium represents a byproduct of Chinese aluminum smelting.

China managed to build its processing dominance over the decades via investments in refining infrastructure around the world, including in the DRC, Zambia, Indonesia, and domestically.

According to the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, for 19 of the 20 minerals examined, China is the leading refiner, with an average market share of almost 70%. Three-quarters of those minerals exhibit greater price swings than oil, says the report.

Also, around half of them are produced as secondary products (extracted as a side effect of mining something else). This means that the by-product's output is managed by the primary metal's production, not its own demand.

Since the critical mineral industry today has a small number of suppliers, it is more susceptible to disruptions, including harsh weather conditions and trade or technical issues.

Where investors are putting money into critical minerals

Mining stocks

Owning a single mining stock in this sector (this particularly refers to rare earth elements and battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel) is high-risk (diversification is recommended, for instance, via ETFs), and there are several reasons to support the claim.

1. China’s dominance in rare earth and battery metal processing can exert pressure on prices.
2. Mining projects can take 20 years or more from discovery to production.
3. Each country has its own rules regarding environmental compliance, labor standards, and where materials can be legally marketed (for instance, the EU Battery Passport requirements).
4. There can also be issues regarding the proof of origin of minerals. Buyers may ask for a verification to avoid forced labor, environmental harm, or sanctioned sources.
5. Not all companies disclose geopolitical, regulatory, timeline, and price risks. Optimistic investor presentations, press releases, and preliminary economic assessments mostly focus on the upside, avoiding listing the risks. Regulators (like CSA in Canada) have issued notices regarding presentations that sound too promotional.

Below is our overview of key publicly traded non-Chinese players in rare earths, lithium, copper, and related battery/electrification metals.

Australia

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) is the largest producer of rare earths outside China. It achieved first commercial-scale dysprosium oxide production (used in the powerful magnets inside EV motors) in Malaysia in May 2025. This made the company the first non-Chinese heavy rare earths producer at scale.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) is a major spodumene (a lithium aluminum silicate mineral) producer located in Western Australia, with most sales taking place in Asia, particularly to battery makers.

IGO Limited produces nickel and lithium, both in Western Australia. For lithium, its main asset is a partnership with the Chinese company Tianqi Lithium (IGO owns 49% of this partnership). Through that partnership, IGO has a stake in the Greenbushes mine, which is the world's largest and richest hard-rock source of lithium (the other 49% of Greenbushes is owned by Albemarle, a U.S. firm).

Americas

SQM is a Chilean chemicals and mining company that extracts lithium from brine in the Atacama Desert. It also produces iodine, specialty plant nutrients, potassium products, and industrial chemicals.

Freeport-McMoRan is the largest publicly traded copper producer.

MP Materials runs the only operational rare earth mine in the United States, at Mountain Pass in California. In July 2025, the U.S. Defense Department bought US$400 million of preferred stock in the company. The deal included a 10-year agreement to buy the magnets MP will produce at a new factory.

Albemarle is one of the world’s largest lithium producers by revenue, with assets in Chile, Australia, and the U.S. It also holds 49% of the Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia alongside the IGO/Tianqi venture.

First Quantum Minerals is primarily a copper miner with its main operating assets in Zambia. It also owns the Cobre Panamá mine, which has been put in maintenance mode, and its future depends on ongoing negotiations with the Panamanian government. In May 2026, Panama released a final audit on the Cobre Panama mine ahead of the decision on potential reopening.

Europe and others

Rio Tinto is the world's second-largest mining company, operating through such business segments as copper, lithium, iron ore, and other commodities. The firm’s Jadar high-quality lithium (and boron) deposit, found in Eastern Serbia, is among the largest untapped lithium reserves on the continent.

However, the project has been put into "care and maintenance" / indefinite hold in late 2025 due to local issues, according to the company’s official website. Currently, the company still owns the deposit, though no information on the production has been provided.

Glencore is the largest cobalt producer outside China, with global headquarters in Baar, Switzerland. It operates in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company produces and markets metals and minerals, including copper, cobalt, zinc, nickel, and ferroalloys.

*This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

How Expert Networks support critical minerals due diligence

The insights on critical minerals are hard to read from the outside. Unlike oil, where you can evaluate monthly production figures for many countries, information on critical minerals can lag by a year or more, says the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Sometimes, there can simply be no concrete data at all.

Mines take an average of 15-20 years from discovery to first production, and in some countries, even longer. By the time a project is available to the public, you may discover that the details regarding permits, negotiations, and financing have been unfolding for years behind closed doors.

Institutional investors suffer when there is a discrepancy between what is stated and what is actually occurring. One of the few approaches to close it is through expert network calls.

Here's how investors can use expert networks:

1. Project status checks

Having a 45-minute call with one or several engineers or project managers who know where a mine actually stands can tell you more than a year of press releases.

2. Offtake intelligence

Being informed on how negotiations between miners and downstream manufacturers are going (these rarely go public until a deal is signed) before any press release appears. Experts close to the process can tell you how far along talks really are.

3. Refinery timelines

Calls with former refinery executives can inform investors about which capacity announcements to believe.

4. Government procurement

Former officials know better how federal buying decisions actually get made. Thus, calls with experts in the field can help you gain insights that are deeper than what gets announced in agency communications.

Expert Network Calls (ENC) is a platform that gives you access to the necessary information via one or multiple expert networks.

1. You don't need to sign up separately with individual expert networks, since ENC brings 22 of them into one platform. Overall, these networks account for over 3 million experts.
2. You describe your project, compare profiles and rates from multiple networks side by side, and schedule calls directly.
3. Every call comes with a free recording, transcript, and AI-generated summary in your choice of eight languages.